Research Projects
Partnership with GPEARI
The Nova Economics Club, under the supervision and with the collaboration of GPEARI (Gabinete de Planeamento, Estratégia, Avaliação e Relações Internacionais), developed a research project assessing the impact of the EU Cohesion Policy (2014–2020) on regional economic growth in Portugal. Using a rigorous econometric approach, the study examined how targeted EU funds influenced GDP per capita across different regions, highlighting their role in promoting convergence and balanced development. This project not only contributes to academic debate on the effectiveness of EU policies but also strengthens the connection between applied research and policymaking in Portugal.
Rethinking Aid: Can R&D Investment Replace Traditional Assistance in Africa?
This paper explores the effectiveness of Development Financial Assistance (DFA) in Africa and contrasts it with the potential of Research and Development (R&D) investment as a long-term alternative. While aid has played an important humanitarian role, its impact on growth and inequality is often undermined by weak institutions, corruption, and aid dependence. R&D, on the other hand, offers the promise of fostering innovation, building self-sufficiency, and creating “Africa-led solutions” to local challenges. The authors argue that while financial aid remains essential for urgent short-term needs, greater investment in R&D could lay the foundation for sustainable, independent development across the continent.
Immigration and Labour Reforms in Post-Crisis Portugal
This study examines how the labour market reforms imposed during Portugal’s sovereign debt crisis affected immigrants compared to native workers. Following the Troika’s austerity program, reforms reduced severance pay, froze minimum wages, and altered contract structures, reshaping employment dynamics. Using Portuguese labour market data, the authors highlight that immigrants, who were already more likely to hold temporary and less secure jobs, faced disproportionate challenges. The findings suggest that while reforms may have improved flexibility for employers, they also deepened vulnerabilities for immigrant workers, raising questions about equity in labour market adjustments.
What Should We Expect? Analyzing Inflation Expectations in Europe and the U.S.
This research investigates how households form inflation expectations and what factors drive them in Europe and the United States. Using survey data, the authors show that demographics, income, financial knowledge, and trust in central banks all play important roles in shaping how people anticipate price changes. They also highlight differences across regions and time horizons: in the short run, expectations often move with unemployment and financial sentiment, while in the long run education and institutional trust become more influential. Despite these insights, much of the variation in expectations remains unexplained, pointing to the need for further study of behavioral and psychological factors in economic decision-making
Too Many Changes? Job Mobility and Wage Losses After Displacement in Portugal
This paper analyzes how different forms of job mobility—changing occupation, industry, or region—affect the wages of workers who lose their jobs due to firm closures in Portugal. Using rich employer-employee data and an event study approach, the authors find that occupational mobility has the most damaging effect: workers who change job titles after displacement face persistent wage losses even 5–6 years later. Geographical moves also tend to hurt workers, particularly women, while industrial mobility shows no significant long-term impact. These findings highlight how career disruptions can exacerbate inequality and point to the need for retraining programs, stronger job-matching policies, and better support for displaced workers, especially women.
Inequality in the 21st Century: Evidence and the Case of Italy
This paper explores the persistence and drivers of inequality in modern capitalist economies, drawing heavily on Thomas Piketty’s influential framework. It reviews philosophical debates on distributive justice alongside empirical evidence showing how wealth concentration grows when the return on capital outpaces economic growth. The authors then turn to Italy as a case study, revealing stark regional disparities where northern regions like Lombardy see high capital returns while southern regions remain stagnant. Their findings suggest that inequality is not accidental but structural, requiring deliberate policy interventions—such as progressive taxation, regional investment, and labor market reforms—to prevent further economic and social divides.
Compliance with EU Fiscal Rules: Lessons from the Stability and Growth Pact
This paper investigates how well EU member states have complied with the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), focusing on the corrective arm that addresses excessive deficits and debt. Analyzing six countries—Germany, France, Hungary, Portugal, Greece, and Italy—the authors examine fiscal performance during key reforms (2005, 2011, 2013, and 2020) and major shocks like the financial crisis and COVID-19. The findings reveal that rule changes often coincided with turning points in economic indicators such as GDP, debt, savings, and unemployment, but causality is difficult to establish. While the corrective arm has been criticized for procyclicality and unequal enforcement, it remains central to EU fiscal governance, with the study highlighting the need for reforms that better balance fiscal discipline with flexibility.